The lure of blogging is strong. Having guest-posted about problems with eternal inflation, Tom Banks couldn’t resist coming back for more punishment. Here he tackles a venerable problem: the ...

The conjunction and disjunction fallacies are famous for revealing the limits of human reasoning about probability. This can be measured by telling people a short story about a character and then ...

In school, we are trained to think that math problems always have one correct answer. But this is not necessarily true for problems dealing with probability, if the method used to reach the described ...