The vector autoregressive model has long been used for portfolio analysis, while a recent extension (VARX) incorporates exogenous factors. Despite its increased forecasting precision, the ...

Abstract: This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries—Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression ...

Sub-Saharan African countries are exposed to spillovers from global financial variables, but the impact on economic activity is more significant in more financially developed economies. Generalized ...

Using the generalized value-at-risk method of Diebold and Yilmaz in their 2009 paper "Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets" to measure ...

This study bridges classical time-series econometrics with modern machine learning by establishing theoretical performance guarantees for recurrent neural networks (RNNs) applied to complex ...