Large language models (LLMs) can generate credible but inaccurate responses, so researchers have developed uncertainty quantification methods to check the reliability of predictions. One popular ...

Autoregressive LLMs generate text by sampling from estimated probability distributions over the next token, conditional on prior context. We use these probabilities to construct an entropy-based ...

Bring out your dead” may be Monty Python’s medieval call, but counting them is still modern and often messy. Death certificates are less purely objective records than narratives assembled under ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. Market-Based Monetary Uncertainty provides daily indicators measuring the uncertainty about future short-term interest rates based on ...